Fact-check: The NBER Working Paper w34901 by Sharat Ganapati and Colin J. Hottman exists and matches the article's description, published recently as confirmed by NBER site and other sources. It is being discussed in real-time on X by economists like @alex_durante_ and @arpitrage, who reference its findings on 60% tariff pass-through after controlling for scale economies, consistent with the summary. NBER is a highly reliable source for economic research.
Did Foreigners Pay America's Tariffs? Quantity Discounts, Scale Economies and Incomplete Pass-Through -- by Sharat Ganapati, Colin J. Hottman
A new academic study using administrative microdata examines who bore the cost of US tariffs imposed in 2018-2019, finding that observed import price increases were partly driven by the loss of transaction-level scale economies as import volumes collapsed. After controlling for this scale effect, the strategic pass-through of tariffs to foreign exporters falls to approximately 60 percent, meaning foreign exporters absorbed a significant portion of the tariff burden through reduced markups. The f