Fact-check: The NBER working paper w34903 titled 'Bubbles, Booms and Crashes in the US Stock Market 1792-2024' by William N. Goetzmann, Otto Manninen, and James Tyler exists and directly matches the article's description, including analysis of booms, crashes, bubbles using aggregate and industry data up to 2024, finding bubbles rare and booms predicting higher volatility rather than crashes. Recent X posts from economics accounts and economist Robin Hanson cite and discuss the paper, confirming its real-time relevance and accuracy. NBER is a highly reputable source with no contradictions found.
Bubbles, Booms and Crashes in the US Stock Market 1792-2024 -- by William N. Goetzmann, Otto Manninen, James Tyler
A new academic paper by Goetzmann, Manninen, and Tyler examines the historical frequency of stock market booms, crashes, and bubbles in the United States from 1792 to 2024 using aggregate market and industry-level data. The study defines bubbles as large booms followed by crashes that reverse prior gains, finding such events are extremely rare. The research extends prior industry-level analysis through 2024 and finds that booms do not reliably predict crashes but do predict higher subsequent vol