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Fact-check: The article accurately summarizes NBER Working Paper #34899 by Goetzmann and Rouwenhorst, published recently, with exact matches to the abstract's findings on equity risk premia (3.7% over commercial paper, 4.5% over bonds) and seniority effects from LSE data 1870-1929. NBER's official X account (@nberpubs) and @CapybaraPapers posted about it on March 4, 2026, confirming real-time reporting and discussion on X. NBER is a highly reputable source, aligning with the 'Historical Equity Risk Premium Research' situation context.

Capital Structure, Seniority, and Risk Premia: Evidence from the London Stock Exchange, 1870–1929 -- by William N. Goetzmann, K. Geert Rouwenhorst

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A new academic study by Goetzmann and Rouwenhorst analyzes security-level data from the London Stock Exchange between 1870 and 1929, constructing capital-weighted return indexes using the Investors Monthly Manual. The research finds a persistent equity risk premium of 3.7% over commercial paper and 4.5% over long-term government bonds, with returns declining monotonically by claim seniority across common stocks, preferred shares, and corporate bonds. The findings show significant co-movement wit

Capital Structure, Seniority, and Risk Premia: Evidence from the London Stock Exchange, 1870–1929 -- by William N. Goetzmann, K. Geert Rouwenhorst

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